Protecting Great Barrier Reef resilience through effective management of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks.

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes.

Marine heatwaves modulate the genotypic and physiological responses of reef-building corals to subsequent heat stress.

Back-to-back marine heatwaves in 2016 and 2017 resulted in severe coral bleaching and mortality across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Encouragingly, some corals that survived these events exhibit increased bleaching resistance and may represent thermally tolerant populations that can better cope with ocean warming. Using the GBR as a natural laboratory, we investigated whether a history of minimal (Heron Island) or severe (Lizard Island) coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017 equates to stress tolerance in a successive heatwave (2020). We examined the genetic diversity, physiological performance, and trophic plasticity of juvenile (<10 cm) and adult (>25 cm) corals of two common genera (Pocillopora and Stylophora). Despite enduring greater cumulative heat stress (6.3°C week-1 vs. 5.6°C week-1), corals that experienced the third marine heatwave in 5 years (Lizard) exhibited twice as high survival and visual bleaching thresholds compared to corals that had not experienced significant bleaching in >10 years (Heron). Surprisingly, only one shared host-Symbiodiniaceae association was uncovered between locations (Stylophora pistillata-Cladocopium "C8 group") and there was no genetic overlap in Pocillopora-Cladocopium partnerships, suggesting turnover in species composition from recent marine heatwaves. Corals within the species complex Pocillopora that survived the 2016 and 2017 marine heatwaves at Lizard Island were the most resilient, exhibiting three times greater calcification rates than conspecifics at Heron Island. Further, surviving corals (Lizard) had distinct isotopic niches, lower host carbon, and greater host protein, while conspecifics that had not experienced recent bleaching (Heron) had two times greater symbiont carbon content, suggesting divergent trophic strategies that influenced survival (i.e., greater reliance on heterotrophy vs. symbiont autotrophy, respectively). Ultimately, while corals may experience less bleaching and survive repeated thermal stress events, species-specific trade-offs do occur, leaving open many questions related to the long-term health and recovery of coral reef ecosystems in the face of intensifying marine heatwaves.